导读

In the early morning of November 6, Donald Trump declared victory in the 2024 US presidential election and delivered a victory speech at the Palm Beach Convention County Center in Florida. The "Red Sweep" significantly increases the possibility of Trump’s policies being approved, including the extension of the TCJA (Tax Cuts and Jobs Act), imposing additional tariffs, increasing infrastructure investment, tightening immigration policies, reducing subsidies for renewable energy, deregulating cryptocurrency, and implementing a "weak dollar" policy.

Regarding the possible impacts caused by new policies, "Overseas Voices" column of IMI Financial Observation will continuously track the voices from overseas media authorities, and select the views on the macroeconomic changes causing by Trump’s policies for our readers.

11月6日凌晨，特朗普宣布赢得2024年美国总统大选，并在佛罗里达州棕榈滩会议中心发表了胜选讲话。“共和党全胜”的局面大幅强化了特朗普政策推进的可能性，其中涵盖TCJA法案（2017年减税与就业法案）延期、对外加征关税、加大基建投资、收紧移民政策、减少新能源补贴、取消加密货币监管和“弱美元”政策等。针对可能到来的政策影响，IMI财经观察“海外之声”栏目将持续追踪海外权威媒体发声，摘录对于特朗普执政政策引发的宏观经济变化的相关观点，以飨读者。

01

关税政策可能导致物价上涨并抑制消费

CNBC: Trump’s proposed tariffs could raise prices for consumers and slow spending

Retail analysts and trade groups are warning President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariff policy could lead to higher prices for consumers.

Companies like Five Below, Crocs, Skechers, Amer Sports and American Eagle Outfitters could be forced to raise prices or take profit cuts because of their exposure to China.

The CEO of E.l.f. Beauty told CNBC it could raise prices under the proposed hikes, which are far higher than the tariffs Trump imposed during his first presidency. (By Melissa Repko, Gabrielle Fonrouge， November 6, 2024)

CNBC：特朗普主张的关税政策可能导致物价上涨并抑制消费

零售分析师和贸易组织警告称，总统唐纳德·特朗普主张的关税政策可能导致物价上涨。诸如Five Below、Crocs、Skechers、Amer Sports和American Eagle Outfitters这样的公司，由于其业务与中国关系密切，可能会被迫提高销售价格或降低利润。E.l.f. Beauty的CEO称，特朗普主张将实施的关税远高于其首次任期内的政策水平，这会导致物价上升。(作者：Melissa Repko, Gabrielle Fonrouge，2024.11.6)

02

选举对小型银行有重大影响

Barron’s: the Election Is Big Stakes for Small Banks

“The election will almost certainly be highly consequential for regional and community banks,” said Dennis Kelleher, chief executive of the nonprofit advocacy group Better Markets.

Analysts expect more small banks to combine to guard against bigger lenders and improve technology to stay competitive, while lower interest rates give way to pent-up merger demand……Donald Trump would likely push to loosen financial regulations and ease the deal making scrutiny that became a hallmark of President Joe Biden’s administration. (By Rebecca Ungarino ，October 31, 2024)

Barron’s：选举对小型银行有重大影响

美国非营利倡议组织Better Markets的CEO Dennis Kelleher表示：“这次选举几乎肯定会对地区性银行和社区银行产生重大影响。”

“小型”银行的规模和服务范围广泛。地区性银行的资产规模通常在100亿到1000亿美元之间，更大规模则属于超级地区性银行。尽管如此，它们面临的动态情况相似。此次选举中，小型银行关注的议题包括并购活动的可行性和关于“杂费”的规定。此外，利率路径和经济基本面也是小型银行关注的重要问题，因为这些因素在不同政党构成政府管理下可能有所波动。

分析师预计，更多小型银行会选择合并，以对抗更大的贷款机构，并提升技术竞争力，而较低的利率也将利于积压的并购需求。特朗普可能会放松金融监管，并减少拜登政府倡议的严格交易审查。(作者：Rebecca Ungarino，2024.10.31)

03

大选与市场调整

ZeroHedge: Presidential Elections And Market Corrections

Presidential elections and market corrections have a long history of companionship. Given the rampant rhetoric between the right and left, such is not surprising. Such is particularly the case over the last two Presidential elections, where polarizing candidates trumped policies. From a portfolio management perspective, we must understand what happens during election years concerning the stock market and investor returns.

Since 1833, the S&P 500 index has gained an average of 10.03% in the year of a presidential election. By contrast, the first and second years following a Presidential election see average gains of 6.15% and6.94%, respectively. There are notable exceptions to positive election-year returns, such as in 2008, when the S&P 500 sank nearly 37%. (By Tyler Durden ，March 08, 2024)

ZeroHedge：大选与市场调整

大选和市场调整一向密不可分。鉴于两派激烈的言辞交锋，这并不令人意外。尤其在过去两次总统选举中，候选人的强烈对立盖过了政策。从投资组合管理的角度看，我们必须理解选举年股市和投资者回报的变化情况。

自1833年以来，S&P 500指数在总统选举年的平均涨幅为10.03%。相较之下，选举后的第一和第二年平均涨幅分别为6.15%和6.94%。不过也有一些例外，如2008年S&P 500指数暴跌近37%。(作者：Tyler Durden, 2024.3.8)

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选题：崔洁

编译：朱俊逸

监制：李婧怡

版面编辑｜王浩

责任编辑｜李锦璇、阎奕舟

主编｜朱霜霜

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