文章来源:《经济学人》Feb 2nd 2023 期 Leaders 栏目
对阿达尼帝国喋喋不休的疑问不会消失
一份做空者的报告也给印度的政策制定者提出了令人不安的问题
Jan 31st 2023
On the surface it was a huge mismatch—David versus an army of Goliaths. Yet in a matter of days a report by Hindenburg Research, a fledgling short-selling firm, resulted in a fall of over $50bn in the wealth of Gautam Adani, hitherto one of the world’s richest men and a close associate of Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister. Along the way, a $2.5bn share offering by Adani Enterprises, flagship of the Adani Group’s listed companies, was derailed. Hindenburg alleged that Adani is a giant con. Adani countered that the charges are baseless and, moreover, count as an attack on India itself.
从表面上看,这是一个巨大的不匹配——大卫对阵巨人歌利亚军队。然而,在短短几天内,一家新兴的做空公司兴登堡研究公司的一份报告导致迄今为止世界上最富有的人之一、印度总理纳伦德拉莫迪的亲密伙伴高塔姆阿达尼的财富缩水超过500亿美元。在此过程中,阿达尼集团上市公司旗舰公司阿达尼企业25亿美元的股票发行计划流产。兴登堡声称阿达尼是一个大骗子。阿达尼反驳说,这些指控毫无根据,而且是对印度本身的攻击。
Mr Adani is a big target. His empire has expanded rapidly in recent years, and now includes everything from ports to power plants. Its share offer initially closed on January 31st with enough interest to seem a success, underpinned by anchor investors including International Holding Company, a firm based in Abu Dhabi. But after a sustained rout in share prices, Adani suddenly cancelled the sale on February 1st, saying it would be morally wrong to impose losses on its sponsors. Global investors are now left with nagging questions about the finances of one of India’s biggest firms.
阿达尼是一个大目标。他的帝国近年来迅速扩张,现在(其业务)包括从港口到发电厂的一切(领域)。其股票发行最初于1月31日结束,在包括总部位于阿布扎比的国际控股公司在内的锚定投资者的支持下,有足够的兴趣看起来是成功的。但在股价持续下跌后,阿达尼突然在2月1日取消了发行,称将损失强加给其支持者在道德上是不对的。全球投资者现在对印度最大的公司之一的财务状况产生了挥之不去的疑问。
The allegations are startling. Hindenburg claims that offshore shareholding entities based in Mauritius and elsewhere are not independent nvestors but fronts for the Adani family. These entities, it alleged, accounted for much of the trading in the group’s shares and pumped up the prices of Adani’s listed companies to stratospheric levels. The short-seller further claims that Adani uses offshore vehicles to hide losses and to launder money through the listed companies.
这些指控令人吃惊。兴登堡声称,位于毛里求斯和其他地方的离岸持股实体不是独立投资者,而是阿达尼家族的幌子。报告称,这些实体在该集团股票交易中占据了很大比例,并把阿达尼上市公司的股价推高至惊人水平。做空者进一步声称,阿达尼利用离岸工具掩盖亏损,并通过上市公司洗钱。
In a 413-page document released on January 29th, the Adani Group rebutted these charges, arguing they had already been thrown out by India’s courts and regulators. Adani has also threatened legal action (bring it on, said Hindenburg). Yet its defence has failed to instil confidence. The share prices of Adani firms have kept falling—around $100bn has been wiped off the group’s market value. Some global banks are reportedly refusing to take Adani bonds as collateral for their private-wealth clients.
【1】thrown out 否决在1月29日公布的一份413页的文件中,阿达尼集团反驳了这些指控,称这些指控已经被印度法院和监管机构否决。阿达尼还威胁要采取法律行动(兴登堡说,放马过来吧)。然而,它的辩护未能给人们灌输信心。阿达尼公司的股价持续下跌,集团市值蒸发了大约1000亿美元。据报道,一些全球性银行拒绝接受阿达尼的债券作为其私人财富客户的抵押品。
Verifying the more startling charges in Hindenburg’s report is no straightforward matter, and Adani’s denials have been forceful. The allegations may ultimately be settled by legal action outside India. What seems clear is that Adani shares are closely held and thinly traded; that the group’s acquisition spree was fuelled by borrowing; and that the explosion in share prices was at odds with the capital-heavy, utility-like businesses it owns—where investors cannot expect explosive profits.
证实兴登堡报告中更惊人的指控并非易事,阿达尼的否认一直很有力。这些指控最终可能会通过在印度境外采取法律行动来解决。显而易见的是,阿达尼的股票被少数人持有,交易稀疏; 该集团的收购热潮是由借款推动的; 而且,股价的暴涨与它所拥有的资本密集、公用事业类的业务不一致,投资者不能指望在这些业务上获得爆炸性利润。
The drama of recent days also reveals the risk of relying too much on tycoons to propel investment. For many in India, including the Modi government, firms such as Adani are crucial vehicles for building much-needed roads, railways, airports and green power plants. Yet such a model ties the fate of India’s infrastructure to the integrity of its tycoons. Adani alone now accounts for 7% of the capital spending of India’s 500 largest listed companies. If the group makes good on its plans over coming years, that share will rise.
【1】make good on sth 做承诺的事最近几天的戏剧性事件也揭示了过度依赖大亨推动投资的风险。对于包括莫迪政府在内的许多印度人来说,阿达尼这样的公司是建设急需的公路、铁路、机场和绿色发电厂的关键工具。然而,这种模式将印度基础设施的命运与企业大亨的诚信联系在一起。目前,仅阿达尼就占了印度500家最大上市公司资本支出的7%。如果该集团在未来几年能够实现其计划,这一份额将会上升。
All the more reason, then, to clear the air around the firm. India needs to mobilise domestic savings to invest in its future. It will also continue to rely on foreign capital and expertise to finance its development. So it is important that the country’s capital markets are above board and seen to be so. A good place to start would be for the Securities and Exchange Board of India, the markets regulator, to declare the status of any ongoing probes into the Adani Group.
【1】 clear the air 消除怨愤;消除隔阂那就更有理由消除围绕公司的误会了。印度需要调动国内储蓄,投资于未来。它还将继续依靠外资和专业知识为其发展提供资金。因此,重要的是,该国的资本市场是光明正大的,而且必须被视为光明正大。市场监管机构印度证券交易委员会宣布对阿达尼集团正在进行的任何调查的进展情况,将是一个很好的开始。
India has an exciting growth story. It has a young population, a vast and increasingly integrated single market, and a thriving business culture. But were people to lose faith in the finances of the country’s largest firms or the oversight of its institutions, the shine would quickly come off. ■
印度有着令人兴奋的增长故事。它拥有年轻的人口,庞大且日益融合的单一市场,以及蓬勃发展的商业文化。但是,一旦人们对该国最大公司的财务状况或对其机构的监管失去信心,这种光环很快就会消失。■